Israel Faces Prolonged Coalition Deadlock with New Elections Still Possible
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MENAFNThe Oct. 27 election produced no clear parliamentary majority for either Eisenkot's opposition alliance or the bloc supporting outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leaving both sides facing difficult negotiations.
Israeli law provides for as many as three opportunities to establish a government before the process can result in another national election. A minority administration is also an option if it manages to secure parliamentary confidence.
Why Eisenkot's Recommendations Do Not Ensure a Majority
During consultations with Herzog, Eisenkot secured backing from 67 lawmakers, compared with 46 recommendations for Netanyahu.
His support included 48 lawmakers representing Jewish-led opposition parties and 19 members of Arab parties. However, endorsing Eisenkot for the mandate does not automatically mean those parties have agreed to participate in his government or support the coalition he attempts to assemble.
Most of the opposition leaders backing Eisenkot have rejected the possibility of forming a government through agreements with Arab parties. Netanyahu's political bloc also opposes such cooperation and currently controls 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats.
Consequently, both political camps need support beyond their established alliances to secure the numbers required for a governing majority.
Netanyahu's lower recommendation count was partly linked to the position of United Torah Judaism, which holds seven seats. The party declined to recommend either candidate because of disagreements over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox religious students.
The main challenge is therefore not simply obtaining presidential recommendations but securing a workable agreement among parties prepared to govern together.
The Three Stages of Government Formation
Under Israel's Basic Law: The Government, Eisenkot has an initial period of 28 days to negotiate and establish a government. Herzog may extend that deadline by a maximum of 14 days.
Should Eisenkot fail, the president has three days to determine whether another member of parliament should receive the opportunity or whether the process should move directly to the Knesset.
A second candidate appointed by the president would receive 28 days to form a government, with no possibility of an additional extension.
If that effort also proves unsuccessful, or Herzog decides not to appoint another candidate, lawmakers receive a 21-day period to nominate someone from among their own members.
For this final parliamentary option, a written request must carry the signatures of at least 61 lawmakers and include the proposed candidate's written agreement. Once those conditions are met, the president must assign the mandate within two days.
The candidate then has 14 days to establish a government, without an extension.
Although the system provides for three possible rounds, Herzog is not required to use the second presidential nomination stage and may instead allow parliament to make the final selection.
How a Minority Government Could Take Office
The requirement for 61 signatures applies specifically to the final parliamentary nomination process. The threshold for approving a government in an initial confidence vote is different: the number of lawmakers voting in favor must exceed the number voting against.
This means an administration without 61 seats could still take office if parties outside the coalition provide sufficient parliamentary support or abstain during the confidence vote.
Israel has previously experienced a government relying on support from Arab lawmakers outside its coalition. In 1993, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's administration was reduced to 56 seats after the Shas party withdrew. His government nevertheless remained in office with backing from five Arab lawmakers.
However, reaching a similar arrangement under the current political circumstances would require cooperation from parties whose leaders have so far rejected such an approach.
When Israel Could Return to the Ballot Box
Another election becomes unavoidable if parliament fails to agree on a candidate during the final nomination period, or if the selected nominee cannot establish a government or obtain parliamentary confidence.
Under these circumstances, the Knesset is automatically dissolved, requiring new elections to take place within 90 days.
Lawmakers can also bring about an earlier dissolution by passing legislation with the support of at least 61 members, including after a minority government has already taken office.
Previous government-formation crises demonstrate how the process can lead to different outcomes.
In 2019, Netanyahu and then-opposition leader Benny Gantz each failed in separate attempts to establish a government. Parliament subsequently exhausted its final opportunity to nominate another candidate, resulting in another election.
The parliamentary nomination stage produced a different outcome in 2020, when Netanyahu and Gantz reached a power-sharing agreement. However, the Knesset was dissolved just seven months later after the government failed to approve the budget. Gantz consequently never assumed the premiership under the planned rotation agreement.
Until a new administration is successfully established, Netanyahu will continue serving as caretaker prime minister.
Israel's longest-serving prime minister is currently standing trial on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He is also subject to a 2024 arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
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