AGP Executive Report

Ceasefire on the brink: Iran says the US violated the truce after “self-defence” strikes on missile sites and mine-laying boats, while Tehran warns of retaliation and begins restoring internet after a long shutdown; Lebanon escalation: Israel’s bombardment continues as Lebanon reports more deaths, adding pressure to any US-Iran deal; Diplomacy push: China’s Wang Yi says any agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran should be submitted to the UN Security Council for legitimacy, as markets watch for signals on the Strait of Hormuz; Energy squeeze: the UK energy price cap rises 13% from July, with gas bills hit hardest, as global gas volatility is blamed on the Iran war; Local fallout: Gaza families mark Eid al-Adha with no livestock and no Hajj departures due to restrictions; Defense business: Elbit Systems wins a roughly $1.4b European contract and pushes backlog past $30b; Markets mood: US stocks hit fresh records on AI-led buying even as geopolitical risk remains the day’s main driver.

US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain: Fresh “self-defense” strikes near the Strait of Hormuz have Iran calling it “bad faith,” while Washington and Tehran keep talking in Doha and markets swing on deal hopes. Hormuz Shipping & Energy: Conflicting reports say whether US forces are escorting tankers, as oil prices hover near $100 and analysts warn the summer could be volatile at the pump. Israel-Lebanon Escalation: UNIFIL says airspace violations hit the highest level since the April ceasefire, and Israel is operating beyond the “Yellow Line,” as Hezbollah doubles down on drone tactics. Defense Industry: Elbit says profits jumped and its order backlog hit a record, while it develops laser and other “energy weapon” options to counter Hezbollah’s explosive drones. Cybersecurity Watch: Israel’s state comptroller warns wartime government systems stayed exposed after a remote-work platform was flagged as vulnerable. Diplomacy & Pressure: Israel pushes India to label Iran’s IRGC a terror group—an ask that puts Delhi in a tight Hormuz bind. Markets in Israel: TASE slid after the central bank’s rate cut, with banks leading the drop while Elbit surged on results.

US-Iran Tensions: The US says it launched “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, hitting missile sites and boats trying to lay mines near Bandar Abbas, even as indirect talks continue in Doha and Rubio says a deal is still possible. Ceasefire Pressure: Iran’s negotiators report “some progress” but warn a settlement isn’t imminent, while the new attacks raise fresh doubts about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Israel’s Leverage Question: Reuters reports Netanyahu privately told confidants he has little ability to influence Trump’s Iran decisions. Energy Cost Shock: In Britain, EDF warns unpaid energy debts could add another £10–£15 a year to bills, as the Ofgem price cap is expected to jump toward about £1,850. Local Policy Moves: Ireland’s long-delayed Occupied Territories Bill is set for Cabinet, but will cover goods only, not services. Regional Economics: Sri Lanka surprised markets with a 100-bp rate hike to fight inflation and currency pressure tied to the Iran-linked energy shock.

Iran-War Diplomacy: Oil slid and Asian stocks climbed as US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz looked closer, with Marco Rubio saying there’s a “pretty solid thing on the table” and Iran urging caution that no deal is imminent; Trump also warned it’s “great deal or no deal,” while Iran denied seeking tolls and said it’s working with Oman on a new passage mechanism. Middle East Frontlines: Despite ceasefire claims, Israel and Hezbollah traded strikes, and in Gaza an Israeli helicopter attack on a displaced camp in Mawasi killed a six-year-old girl and a woman, with Lebanon reporting new ceasefire violations including an airstrike that killed four. Israel’s Economic Policy: The Bank of Israel cut rates to 3.75% for the third time in six months, citing stable inflation and a stronger shekel, even as geopolitical uncertainty remains high. US-Iran Deal Politics: Israel’s influence is questioned as Netanyahu admits limited sway over Trump’s Iran strategy, while Trump links any Iran accord to broader Arab normalization under the Abraham Accords. Business & Markets: TASE surged on ceasefire optimism and the rate cut. Sports/Soft Power: Mexico will host Iran at the 2026 World Cup after the US declined visas, with FIFA coordinating logistics.

US-Iran Deal Watch: Trump pushed back on Republican critics, saying his emerging Iran deal is “the exact opposite” of Obama’s and that the US blockade of Iranian ports stays until any agreement is “certified and signed,” while Rubio told reporters in New Delhi the US will pursue a “good agreement” before considering “another way.” Energy Shock at Home: India’s fuel pain deepened as petrol and diesel rose again by ₹2.61–2.71/litre for a fourth time in under two weeks, lifting Delhi petrol above ₹102 and diesel to ₹95.20, with economists warning this could become a frequent pattern if crude stays high. Regional Security: Israel reported the death of Sgt. Nehoray Leizer in southern Lebanon as strikes continue despite a Lebanon ceasefire. Defense Tech: Ukraine’s drone war is getting even more “transparent,” with analysts citing soaring drone-driven casualties. Business Moves: Nibe Group and Elbit Systems signed a JV in India for energetic materials and propellant manufacturing. Human Rights Backlash: Australian flotilla activists returned home alleging abuse, sexual assault and beatings in Israeli detention.

US-Iran Breakthrough Talk: Trump says a US-Iran memorandum is “largely negotiated” and could be announced soon, with a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and steps toward sanctions relief—then immediately walked it back, warning negotiators “not to rush” and keeping the blockade in place until any deal is “certified and signed.” Israel’s Red Line: Netanyahu reiterated Israel must retain “freedom of action” against threats, while Israeli officials worry any interim deal could leave Iran’s nuclear capability intact. Energy Shock Spillover: Analysts warn Hormuz disruption is a broader cost shock, hitting freight, packaging, fertilizer and food inputs—not just fuel at the pump. Cyber and Security Pressure: An Iran-linked hacking campaign targeted the US, Israel and UAE, underscoring that even diplomacy is moving alongside covert pressure. Israel Economy: Despite the crisis, Israeli exports hit an all-time $165B in 2025, led by services.

US-Iran Breakthrough: Trump says a “largely negotiated” 60-day MoU is near, aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear talks, with a “relief for performance” setup: Iran clears mines and restores shipping, while the US lifts port restrictions and issues sanctions waivers. Iran Pushback: Tehran says talks are progressing but insists it will safeguard national interests with “utmost caution,” and Iran’s Fars outlet disputes Trump’s claim that the strait will be fully reopened under US terms. Nuclear Pivot: Reports say Iran has agreed in principle to relinquish its highly enriched uranium stockpile, though the handover method is still undecided. Regional Fallout: While diplomacy moves, Iran executed a man accused of spying for the US and Israel, and Hezbollah reported 12 attacks in the last 24 hours in Lebanon and northern Israel, citing ceasefire violations. Israel Economy Watch: The Bank of Israel faces a high-stakes rate decision amid renewed Iran-war risk and political uncertainty.

US-Iran Talks Heat Up: Marco Rubio in India said “some progress” is being made and “there might be news” soon, as Iran’s foreign ministry says differences are narrowing while Tehran pushes to finalize a memorandum of understanding with Pakistan as mediator. Trump’s Next Move: Trump told CBS/Axios the odds of a deal are “solid 50/50,” while warning he could resume strikes if talks fail—keeping markets on edge. Strait of Hormuz Stakes: Iran and the IRGC Navy claim control and safe passage of 25 ships, even as negotiators discuss reopening the strait and handling Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Israel Kept at Arm’s Length: A New York Times report says Israel has been largely excluded from the highest-level ceasefire talks, forcing Tel Aviv to rely on regional contacts and its own monitoring. West Bank Pressure: Spain and Belgium joined a wider European push urging firms not to bid on the E1 settlement project, while Western governments demand Israel curb expansion and settler violence. Energy Shock Fallout: Separately, Southern California ordered evacuations over a potential chemical tank failure at a GKN Aerospace site.

West Bank Pressure Mounts: Australia’s Albanese joined a widening coalition of Western leaders warning Israel to stop West Bank settlement expansion, spotlighting the E1 plan and calling settler violence “unprecedented.” Gaza Flotilla Fallout: Activists released from Israeli custody allege beatings and sexual assault aboard a detention vessel; Israel’s prison service denies the claims as Germany and Italy say they’re investigating. Iran Talks, Still Stuck: Iran says gaps with the U.S. are “deep and significant” and nuclear issues aren’t on the table yet, while Rubio says there’s “some progress” but “more work” needed—leaving the Strait of Hormuz and enriched uranium as the main sticking points. Energy Shock Spreads: Fuel prices keep climbing—India reports a third hike in under 10 days—while Australia signals its fuel excise cut is likely to stay temporary. Markets & Policy: The UN nuclear nonproliferation review conference failed again, and the U.S. Fed chair Kevin Warsh was sworn in as inflation worries linger.

Hormuz Pressure Escalates: The EU moved toward new sanctions on Iranian officials tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, expanding its existing Iran sanctions to enable fresh travel bans and asset freezes, as Brussels argues Tehran’s closure of the vital shipping lane violates international law and keeps energy prices volatile. Fed Turns More Hawkish: In Washington, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Fed chair while Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed removing “easing bias” language, pushing bond traders to price in a rate hike later this year. Cost-of-Living Fallout: US consumer sentiment sank to a record low as gasoline costs tied to the Iran war strain household budgets. West Bank Under Fire: Nine Western countries warned Israel against settlement expansion, including E1, and cautioned companies over legal and reputational risks. Regional Ripple Effects: Lebanon’s dollar reserves are under strain again, with fears of another financial crisis as war damage and weaker remittances bite.

US-Iran Talks, Market Mood: Asian stocks climbed and the dollar hovered near six-week highs as investors chased “good signs” in US-Iran talks—yet the uranium dispute and Strait of Hormuz tolls/control kept risk elevated. Nuclear Red Line: Iran’s supreme leader ordered near-weapons-grade uranium must not leave the country, a direct blow to US and Israeli demands that Tehran export its stockpile. Mediation Push: Rubio pointed to Pakistan’s role as mediators head between Washington and Tehran, while both sides trade competing signals on what a deal could include. Energy Shock Fallout: The EU cut its growth outlook, citing the Middle East war’s energy hit; gold also struggled as higher yields and a firmer dollar outweighed safe-haven demand. Regional Pressure Points: Iran declared a new Hormuz control zone, and Israel shelled southern Syria farmland near Daraa amid escalating raids. Israel-Gaza Flotilla Fallout: Activists described torture after abductions from Gaza aid boats, adding fresh diplomatic heat.

Diplomatic Clash at Home: Israel’s ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter sharply condemned Social Equality Minister Mai Golan’s “disgusting and reprehensible” attack on Reform Judaism, escalating a Knesset spat into a public rupture between Israel’s Orthodox establishment and the Reform camp. Iran Talks Under Strain: Pakistan is pushing to keep US-Iran peace talks moving as Iran reviews Washington’s latest response, while Trump keeps hinting at force if no deal lands. Nuclear Red Line: New reporting says Iran’s leadership wants uranium enriched to 60% to stay inside the country, undercutting key US-Israel demands. Markets Watch Hormuz: Oil and gold swung on the latest Iran headlines, with Europe mixed as the Strait of Hormuz disruption remains a “critical” risk for global gas supplies. Defense Industry Momentum: US intelligence and reporting say Iran is rebuilding drones and parts of its military industrial base faster than expected during the ceasefire. Israel-US Security Tech: L3Harris is pitching the OA-1K Skyraider II for counter-drone and maritime roles amid uncertainty over US fleet plans.

Strait of Hormuz Control: Iran has formally defined the Strait of Hormuz “supervision area” and says ships must coordinate with its new Persian Gulf Strait Authority and get permits to pass—raising fresh shipping and insurance jitters even as some tankers have started moving again. US-Iran Talks Under Pressure: Trump says he can wait a few days for the “right answers,” while Iran says it is reviewing Washington’s latest proposal and warns renewed attacks could trigger wider retaliation. Israel-US Friction: Reports describe a tense Trump-Netanyahu call over whether to strike Iran now or wait for diplomacy. Energy Shock Spills Into Markets: Oil prices have swung on deal hopes and Hormuz traffic changes, while the UN cut its 2026 growth outlook over the energy crisis. Climate Courtroom Win: The UN General Assembly backed an ICJ climate ruling 141-8, with Israel and the US among the opponents. Defense Tech Push: Israeli firms presented the Defense Ministry with solutions to counter fiber-optic explosive drones, including kinetic and electromagnetic interception prototypes.

Middle East Shock to the Global Economy: The UN cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% and warned inflation could climb to 3.9%, blaming the Iran-energy spiral and Strait of Hormuz disruption for higher fuel and shipping costs. Energy Pressure, Everywhere: Gas prices are surging again in the US, while Iran’s threats to widen the war keep markets jittery and governments bracing for cost shocks. Israel-Iran Talks in the Spotlight: Trump says Iran negotiations are in the “final stages,” but Iran warns the US is trying to reignite conflict—keeping a fragile ceasefire on edge. Local Fallout Beyond the Region: Central banks and economists from Curaçao to Nigeria to Bangladesh are flagging how energy volatility feeds inflation, weakens tourism, and squeezes fiscal room. Israel Business & Markets: TASE rebounded ahead of Shavuot, while Zim posted a first-quarter loss as demand softened—an early sign of how shipping is getting hit by the wider turmoil.

Middle East Ceasefire Push: Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin in Beijing that a “comprehensive” ceasefire is imperative and warned against restarting hostilities as Trump again floats fresh Iran strikes within days. Shipping Watch: Two Chinese tankers left the Strait of Hormuz, a sign markets are watching closely for any easing of the blockade risk. War Powers Clash: A US Senate vote advanced a measure aimed at forcing Trump to seek congressional approval for the Iran war, keeping the legal fight over executive authority front and center. Global Economy Hit: The UN cut its 2026 growth forecast and lifted inflation expectations, blaming the Middle East energy shock. NATO Shipping Role: NATO is discussing contingency planning to protect vessels in the Strait of Hormuz if it stays closed past early July. Israel-Linked Legal Pressure: Israel’s Smotrich reacted sharply to reports of an ICC arrest-warrant request, as the court’s scrutiny of West Bank policies intensifies.

Middle East Flashpoint: NATO is weighing a plan to help ships transit the Strait of Hormuz if it stays disrupted into early July, but unanimous buy-in is still missing. Trump-Iran Deadline: Trump says Iran has just days to reach a deal, hinting at a “big hit” within 2–3 days if talks fail—then pausing again after Gulf leaders urged more time. G7 Economic Response: G7 finance chiefs in Paris pledged coordinated action on inflation and growth risks, calling for a swift return to safe Hormuz transit and pushing supply-chain resilience for critical minerals. Energy Shock at Home: Oil prices slipped after the latest strike pause, but the damage is sticking—UK energy bills are forecast to jump by about £209 a year, and fuel costs are rising across markets. Local Fallout: In the West Bank, Israel’s withholding of Palestinian tax revenues is now in its 13th month, worsening medicine shortages and disrupting education, while Israel also escalates movement restrictions.